Quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and other global trends will be the major driving factors for determining movement in the domestic equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Besides, factors like trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also influence trading.
Equity mutual funds attracted Rs 8,898 crore in July, a 43 per cent decline compared to the preceding month as markets continued to remain volatile amid concerns over inflation and rate hike expectations. For the 17th straight month, equity mutual funds witnessed inflows in July. The net inflows in July were lower compared to Rs 15,495 crore seen in June, Rs 18,529 crore in May and Rs 15,890 crore in April, according to data released by Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) on Monday.
The rally in Indian mid-and smallcap indices thus far in calendar year 2024 (CY24) has been the best in class across the world, eclipsing the global FTSE benchmarks, and also out running peers from other leading world stock markets. This is despite the correction in the mid-and smallcap segments back home seen in the last few days, triggered by valuation concerns, geopolitical developments amid nervousness ahead of the July - September 2024 (Q2-FY25) corporate results season.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower on Monday after hitting their all-time high levels in early trade amid selling in blue-chip IT stocks and HDFC Bank. After breaching the 77,000-mark during the early trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex came under selling pressure at the fag-end of the session and ended 203.28 points or 0.27 per cent lower at 76,490.08. During the day, the benchmark jumped 385.68 points or 0.50 per cent to hit a new record of 77,079.04.
The benchmark Nifty and Sensex could see another 8-10 per cent from the current levels, said HDFC Securities in its outlook for equity markets in 2024. The brokerage said that the market movement in the next year will not be linear, and there will be more volatility. When asked about the market reaction to the General Elections in 2024, Dhiraj Relli, managing director and CEO of HDFC Securities, said more than the outcome of the elections, the market movement in the next three to four months will decide the market trajectory post elections.
What stood out in his 15-year journey as a member of the political executive at the Centre was his glowing record as India's most successful and effective finance minister. Both as prime minister and finance minister, he understood the importance of gradualism, except when the economy or the polity was in a crisis.
Electric two-wheeler (e2W) maker Ather Energy has submitted preliminary papers to the Securities and Exchange Board of India to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). According to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP), the IPO will comprise a fresh issue of equity shares valued at Rs 3,100 crore, alongside an offer for sale of 22 million equity shares by its promoters and investor shareholders.
Among the 30 Sensex companies, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Asian Paints, Reliance Industries, ITC, Sun Pharma, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and JSW Steel were the major laggards. Larsen & Toubro, Tata Motors, Maruti, NTPC, Mahindra & Mahindra and UltraTech Cement were among the gainers.
Investors should match their investment horizon with the fund's portfolio duration.
Release of key macroeconomic numbers, monthly derivatives expiry, and global cues are likely to drive stock market movement this week, according to analysts. Markets will also be reacting to remarks made by the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, they said. "This week, we expect the market to witness a gradual up-move with stock-specific action.
From the Sensex basket, Maruti, Mahindra & Mahindra, NTPC, JSW Steel, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, and Power Grid were the major gainers. Nestle, Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank, Titan, HCL Technologies and Infosys were the laggards.
'We are going to need more technical people in government.' 'You can't expect a generalist to understand the complicated world of financial engineering.' 'I regret to say that most of our politicians have no competence to deal with these things. Nor is there a willingness to learn.'
Among the Sensex components, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra, Titan, Infosys, JSW Steel, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank, Larsen & Toubro and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. Maruti, State Bank of India, Power Grid, Tata Motors and IndusInd Bank were the laggards.
Investors continue to back-up equity mutual funds in June as such schemes attracted a net inflow of Rs 15,498 crore on strong flows from systematic investment plans despite volatility in the stock market and relentless selling by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs). This also marked the 16th straight month of positive inflow in equity schemes. Inflows into equity mutual funds in June was lower compared to the net inflow of Rs 18,529 crore seen in May, data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) showed on Friday.
Stock markets would be driven by global trends and foreign investors' trading activity in the holiday-shortened week, analysts said adding that key equity indices may face volatile trends amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. This week markets will have just three trading sessions. Equity markets will remain closed on Monday for Holi and on Friday for Good Friday. "This week will be shorter due to market closure on both Monday for Holi and Friday for Good Friday.
'The race is now on for Indian IT firms to develop their AI prowess and focus on a software-first approach to services as the people element becomes more complicated with Trump's expected new regulations.'
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Bajaj Finserv, Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, State Bank of India and HCL Technologies were the biggest gainers. On the contrary, Asian Paints, JSW Steel, NTPC and Adani Ports were among the laggards.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty slumped over 1 per cent on Friday, tracking a weak trend in global markets and fresh foreign fund outflows. Falling for the third day running, the 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 1,017.23 points or 1.24 per cent to settle at 81,183.93.
Among the Sensex firms, Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Industries, Infosys, Asian Paints, ITC and UltraTech Cement were the major gainers. State Bank of India, JSW Steel, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel and Tata Motors were among the laggards.
The Budget proposals are expected to boost the fortunes of consumer goods and fast-moving consumer goods companies, which have been struggling with poor consumer demand for more than a year. The Budget announcements, such as the increase in standard deduction by Rs 25,000 for income-tax payers and slab revisions, will put more money in their hands, boosting consumer demand. Private consumption is also likely to benefit from a new scheme to offer internships to 10 million youths in the country's top 500 companies.
IndiGo share price today: IndiGo share price fell as much as 4.8 per cent to a low of Rs 4,275 per share on the BSE in Monday's intraday trade as investors booked profit in the stock post a its April-June quarter (Q1) results for financial year 2024-25 (FY25). The stock ended 1.36 per cent lower at Rs 4,430 as against a 23-points gain in the benchmark BSE Sensex. The selling also got exacerbated as the management commentary, post Q1FY25 results, highlighted that inflationary pressure could likely dent July-September (Q2FY25) performance.
The Indian equity markets will soon account for over a fifth of a key emerging market (EM) benchmark tracked by funds with assets exceeding $500 billion. This development is expected to funnel as much as $3 billion into the domestic markets. Following the latest review undertaken by global index provider MSCI, India's weighting in the MSCI EM index will surpass 20 per cent for the first time, narrowing its gap with the current top-weighted China to fewer than 400 basis points.
As the results season kicks in, the quarterly earnings numbers of several blue-chip firms -- such as Infosys and Reliance Industries -- along with global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, will determine equity market movement in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic WPI inflation data for June -- scheduled to be announced on Monday -- will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram.
'Retail investors, who had not seen such a massive correction in the SMID universe since COVID-19, are witnessing something like this for the first time. Panic profit booking may continue.'
M&M was the biggest gainer on the Sensex chart, rising 5.97 per cent, followed by JSW Steel, Ultra Cement, Kotak Bank, ITC and NTPC. Reliance Industries gained 0.73 per cent to close at Rs 2,871 apiece. In contrast, TCS, HCL Tech, HUL, Nestle Industries, Bajaj Finserv, Wipro and Infosys were among the losers.
Justice BV Nagarathna also partially agreed with the majority verdict but criticised the CJI's views on Justice Iyer's judicial approach in dealing with "material resources" and state's power over them.
India's financial sector is dominated by large government-owned and private-sector banks.
In a data-packed week, the domestic macroeconomic figures -- industrial production and inflation numbers -- along with global trends would dictate trends in the equity market this week, analysts said. According to experts, markets may face volatile trends due to high valuations. Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit their fresh record peaks on Thursday. Besides, trading activity of foreign investors, movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also influence trading in equities.
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With the absence of any major immediate domestic trigger in sight, investors would focus on global trends and trading activity of foreign investors for further cues in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the market. "This week is a truncated one with no major triggers expected. However, we anticipate sector-specific movements amid budget-related buzz.
Among Sensex shares, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra, Sun Pharma, Nestle, NTPC, Power Grid, NTPC, UltraTech Cement and Larsen & Toubro were the biggest laggards. The prominent gainers were ITC, Tata Motors, Asian Paints and Titan.
'Many do not have robust business models, and their prospects of survival and long-term growth are poor.'
'Expectations are high regarding the change in LTCG with respect to equity investments.'
Private credit is fast emerging as a major source of finance for projects in India as several entrepreneurs are looking for short-term debt to bridge the funding gap due to difference in pricing for equity dilution, top officials at PwC India said. They said while new private equity (PE) investments during the past two years have declined, several public market exits by PEs were observed during that period. Several companies are likely to approach capital markets in the near future to provide liquidity to PE fund investors.
Global fund managers remain bullish on the Japanese stock markets, which is now their most preferred destination in the Asian region. Both Morgan Stanley and Jefferies in their recent reports, have cited their preference for the Land Of The Rising Sun, which is fast becoming the land of the rising equities, too.
Equity investors suffered a massive loss of Rs 31 lakh crore on Tuesday as markets went into a tailspin with the BSE Sensex tumbling nearly 6 per cent as vote counting trends showed the BJP may not have a clear majority in the Lok Sabha polls. Erasing the record-rally of the previous trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex cracked 4,389.73 points or 5.74 per cent to settle at 72,079.05. During the day, the benchmark tanked 6,234.35 points or 8.15 per cent to hit a nearly five-month low of 70,234.43.
The early-bird results for the April-June quarter of 2024 (Q1FY25) hint at a slowdown in corporate revenues and profits in FY25. Corporate profits might face headwinds from a continued revenue growth slowdown and a reversal in margin gains from lower commodity and energy prices in FY24. The combined net profit (adjusted for exceptional gains and losses) of the 210 companies that have declared their Q1FY25 results so far is down 4.2 per cent from the year-ago period - their worst showing in seven quarters.
Had you invested Rs 10,000 each in JSW Steel, Titan Company and Bajaj Finance 20 years ago, when they were just penny stocks (trading below Rs 10), you would have become a millionaire by now.
Geopolitical events, macroeconomic data and quarterly earnings of corporates would guide the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Stock markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Ram Navami. "This week promises to be crucial for the market as fresh worries about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel emerge.
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